Oceanic Nationals 2021 Stage 1 Predictions: Week 3

The OCN Stage 1 2021 playoffs race will be decided in Week 3.

There hasn’t been a tighter season of Pro League in Oceanic history. Only three points ⁠— one win ⁠— separates first place from seventh as we head into the third week of OCN Stage 1 2021. It makes predicting games all the more harder.

It doesn’t help when there’s some real anomalies in the pack. Bliss in second is something no one had on their minds heading into this season, but they’ve managed to push their way up the pack with a big win over Order.

Knights in sixth is also an outlier. Despite their APAC South success ⁠— and their total demolishing of LFO on Gameday 3 ⁠— they are still out of the playoffs as we speak.

Week 3 is where we’re going to see the dust settle. If it’s this close as we head into Week 4 and the final gamedays, I’ll have to write a thesis in next week’s predictions (or nothing at all) to try and justify who’s going to make playoffs. 

Anyways, without further ado, here’s the Snowball Esports predictions for OCN Week 3, courtesy of the expert panel you see below.

RoflcopterGG vs bliss (Monday 7pm AEST)

Prediction: Bliss win

If there are two teams to be pleasantly surprised by in OCN, it’s Roflcopter and Bliss. Their matchup on Monday will be playoffs deciding for both squads. If Bliss win, they’re a couple of points off locking that Top 4 spot. If Roflcopter win, they’ll throw a spanner in the works.

Roflcopter’s blistering Week 1 form didn’t continue on into Week 2, with hard losses to Elevate and Wildcard pushing them from first to outside the top four. They looked a little less ironed on strategically, especially after being pushed away from Oregon and onto other maps like Kafe and Coastline.

Bliss has shown that depth in map pool and strategy though. Sure, the overwhelming strategy at times can be “Repix go kill,” but with solid overtime wins over Order and Rhythm, they have shown they can hit that reset button and go hard in the second half. We haven’t quite seen that from Roflcopter yet.

This will be a match of unequalled aggression in OCN. If you want frags and high-octane action, you won’t want to miss this. However, Bliss should just have the tactical edge to nail their place in playoffs.

Rhythm vs Elevate (Monday 8pm AEST)

Prediction: Elevate win

Rhythm are seemingly the kryptonite of the top four teams. They have managed to beat Order and Wildcard, but couldn’t get over the line against Bliss or Roflcopter. Whether it’s just their style of play or otherwise, I don’t really know.

Based on this alone you’d think they’d be a shoe-in against Elevate. However, the current top dogs of OCN are really tearing up the domestic league. While their APAC South performances haven’t been top notch, they’re slowly getting on top of their game. It’s taken some time to work in Fishoguy, but things are starting to click.

The one way I see Elevate stumbling to a loss here is if they have to face another fragger on an absolute hot streak. Last week it was Jigsaw. This week, it could be someone like Supremisis, who can have an absolute blinder on a good day.

However, this is likely to be a pretty one-sided affair. You can never count Rhythm out, but Elevate is a cut above. They’ll want to keep one hand firmly on first place in OCN, and they aren’t going to take anyone lightly. Expect them to push for the regulation win. Hard.

Order vs LFO (Monday 9pm AEST)

Prediction: Order win

Speaking of Jigsaw and mighty fraggers, he’ll have another chance to prove himself in his first OCN season against Order. 

I said it in the MVP post this week, but Jigsaw’s efforts against Elevate is the single-best individual effort in Oceanic Pro League history. Not even Ethan’s insane Consulate game against Ferox last year rivals it. 20 kills in 11 rounds? Against the number one team in the comp? To get your first win of the season? Unheard of.

Will lightning strike twice against Order? Maybe. Since a strong start, it’s been a bit hit-or-miss for Order. Speca hasn’t quite been living up to the expectations he sets for himself, and a lot of the heavy lifting has fallen on the shoulders of Cutie.

That’s not to say that Order shouldn’t be firm favorites for this though. In reality, Order only really needs a few players to light up to really make this an easy victory. LFO aren’t having the sharpest of seasons, and while the Elevate win was huge, backing up a performance like that is a tall ask, and we still need to see a bit more from them.

Wildcard vs Knights (Monday 10pm AEST)

Prediction: Knights win

Wildcard vs Knights. The old guard vs the new guard of Oceanic Siege. In terms of history, this should be the most hyped matchup of OCN Stage 1. Period.

The Knights, ignoring their OCN performances so far, are the best team in Oceania right now. It’s pretty hard to dispute that fact. Their APAC South performances are blinding ⁠— especially their 7-2 win against 7th Heaven. When the Knights turn up, they look like the Wildcard of old.

Speaking of the Wildcard of old, we got a glimpse of that this week after they beat Roflcopter. It wasn’t without going down to Rhythm, but over in APAC South, they managed a huge scalp over 7th Heaven to get their season back on track.

There’s still a long way for Wildcard to go. They have a lot to work out with Sylix on the roster, and the impact of Diesel’s departure will be felt forever. They had to shift roles within the team, and it’s been messy. Knights should be able to capitalise on this, but it shouldn’t be a blowout.

Oceanic Nationals Stage 1 2021 returns for Week 3 tonight at 7pm AEST with the aforementioned RoflcopterGG vs Bliss.

You can catch the action live on the Rainbow Six Bravo Twitch channel.

Andrew Amos

After joining Snowball in mid-2018, Andrew "Ducky" Amos has fast become one of our region's best esports writers. Cutting his teeth in Oceanic Overwatch, he now covers all kinds of esports for publications globally. However, his heart still lays at home, telling the story of Aussies trying to make it big.

Andrew Amos
Andrew Amos
After joining Snowball in mid-2018, Andrew "Ducky" Amos has fast become one of our region's best esports writers. Cutting his teeth in Oceanic Overwatch, he now covers all kinds of esports for publications globally. However, his heart still lays at home, telling the story of Aussies trying to make it big.



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